What is happening to people analytics? A 15 year trend - PART THREE
Directionally Correct Newsletter, The #1 People Analytics Substack
By: Kristin Saboe, Cole Napper, Jin Yan, & Ben Zweig
This article is written to discuss: how the composition of government people analytics jobs have changed over the last 15 years.
Thank You
First, a big thank you to Revelio Labs (Jin & Ben) for their willingness to research this topic, and thank you to Kristin for taking the lead on expanding the exploration of this series to include people analytics roles in the government.
Context
This is Part THREE in a series of articles on what has been going on in people analytics in the last 15 years. In Part ONE & Part TWO, we explored the trends of employment in private sector people analytics jobs and the skills and backgrounds needed to be successful in those roles. In responses to those two articles, Kristin reached out to Cole about a noticeable gap in the data – namely, missing government people analytics jobs. When reviewing the history of relevant fields to people analytics – such as applied social psychology, sociology, and Industrial-Organizational psychology – one quickly learns that many of the first applied psychological experiments were funded or done in a federal setting (e.g. U.S. Army Alpha and Beta aptitude tests developed during World War I). While the role title of “People Analytics” is relatively new, roles in the U.S. government reliant on the core skill sets of modern-day people analytics have been stable within government and policy settings for many decades. Notably due to foundationally different market conditions, government people analytics roles may demonstrate trends unique from those found for profit-driven, private sector talent marketplaces.
In this article we explore how people analytics roles have evolved in the U.S. government and how that compares to the private sector. We’ll format this discussion into three sections:
Expectations - What we think is/was happening
Facts - What is/was actually happening (including “Methodology”)
Commentary - What we think are the implications to people analytics
While people analytics skill sets and roles have a long history within the U.S. government and public sector more broadly, we will focus on trends from the past 15 years to enable a consistent data foundation and the ability to compare with the previously reported trends for private sector roles (see Part ONE and Part TWO in this series). While this discussion will remain high level, you can dive into this series of articles in much greater depth in Cole’s forthcoming book - keep on the lookout! We hope this three part series prompts new insights and intrigue for you.
Is the market the same for people analytics roles in the public sector?
EXPECTATIONS:
In the first two articles, we found ample evidence for recent declines in private sector roles in people analytics. However, we wondered if this would hold true for public sector jobs. Considering the different market conditions for public and private sector jobs, we hypothesize that there is an inverse correlation with people analytics private sector and public sector jobs – meaning we expect things aren’t so bad for people employed in public sector jobs right now.
FACTS:
Using Revelio Labs’ HR data, we identified those positions within the US Federal Government with titles mentioning the following keywords: Operations Research and Systems Analyst (ORSA), Research Psychologist, Personnel Psychologist, Personnel Analyst, Human Performance Research, Personnel Research, Industrial and organizational (I/O) psychologists. We acknowledge this list may not be fully comprehensive and that some job titles may be mismatched with the exact skills needed for a role - this is not a unique condition of federal roles. This is just a starting point to explore trends and include a wider breadth of people analytics roles that exist both in public and private sector settings.
The line below shows the count of positions with titles containing any of the specified keywords. In total, we identified around 2,100 people analytics positions within the US Federal Government in 2024.
Compared to the growth of people analytics positions in the private sector, the federal government saw a less dramatic increase around 2012. While the private sector experienced a growth rate of around 20%, federal government PA positions plateaued with zero growth. However, as the labor market cooled and interest rates rose, the private sector's growth rate plummeted, while the federal government experienced an uptick in its growth rate.
COMMENTARY:
Market conditions for public and private sector roles often differ. Private sector roles are responsive to market conditions whereas public sector roles rely on approved federal funding. The profit margins and budgeting between the two sectors are also different. Job availability tends to follow market conditions in the private sector – in times of growth, job opportunities increase and vice versa. On the contrary, the services provided by the government and related allocated budgets are often more stable and established on longer time horizons. When instability occurs, it is often politically driven by fiscal philosophy and legislative productivity.
It is likely that the increase in people analytics roles for the federal government is a combination of an increase in actual roles and adjustments to how roles are titled and/or defined due to increased legislation requiring research-informed and data-driven decision making for federally funded projects (see GAO, 2023 for a review; summarized timeline of legislation on pg. 11). In addition, as people analytics roles became more prevalent in the private sector over the last 15 years, government roles likely adjusted job titles to better market to the current-day terminology.
Thus, private sector roles followed the general economic ups and downs whereas public sector roles demonstrated greater stability over time. In addition, many of these roles are well-established and are not viewed as “new” or “in need of demonstrating worth”; as a newer field in the private sector, it is likely these roles are still proving their worth more often than in federal settings. The latter statement is conjecture but reasonable given that people analytics roles have a much longer and impactful history within the public sector (see more about the history of the National Science Foundation, Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs), and trends in federally funded research and development).
Is it more stable to work in the public sector?
EXPECTATIONS:
It is considered conventional wisdom that if one seeks competition and commensurate compensation in their career, to choose the private sector, and if one seeks stability to choose the public sector. As a consequence, we expect private sector jobs in people analytics to have more variability and public sector jobs to have more stability.
FACTS:
We further break down the growth rate into the hiring and attrition rates for people analytics positions in both the federal government and the private sector. During the Great Resignation, the private sector experienced a significant increase in attrition, while the federal government was less affected. As the labor market loosened, attrition rates in the private sector dropped dramatically, remaining relatively stable in the federal government.
Similarly, the hiring rate in the private sector was significantly impacted by hiring freezes and the credit crunch, whereas it remained relatively stable in the federal government.
COMMENTARY:
It is pretty apparent in the data that there are significant gaps between hiring and attrition rates of public and private sector people analytics roles. Given the foundational differences in the operations and financing of roles between public and private sector roles, these trends are not particularly surprising. The reliability of the labor marketplace for people analytics roles in the public sector supports the notion that public sector roles provide greater job security than private sector roles. As mentioned previously, the longer legacy of people analytics skill sets within public sector organizations may also give greater stability to the field compared to the private sector.
How does talent flow between public and private sectors?
EXPECTATIONS:
We are unsure of talent flows (inflow and outflow) patterns between private and public sector people analytics roles, but we expect that the number of people analytic practitioners moving between the two sectors is low. Perhaps more people with PhDs go into government roles as a proportion, and maybe more MBAs and data scientists go into private sector roles as a proportion, but this is speculative. In terms of skills, we expect people analytics roles in the public sector to be more research-focused than that of the private sector.
FACTS:
Tracking the outflows of people analytics practitioners since 2021, we find that those in the public sector are more likely to transition to the private sector when switching jobs, while practitioners in the private sector predominantly remain within the sector.
Comparing the educational backgrounds of people analytics practitioners in the private sector and the federal government, we observe that those in the federal government are more likely to hold master’s and doctoral degrees.
When comparing the skill composition of people analytics practitioners in the US federal government with those in the private sector, we find that technical skills such as data analysis, Python, and research are overrepresented among federal government practitioners. Specifically, the share of people analytics practitioners with data analysis skills is 61.5 percentage points higher than their counterparts in the private sector.
In addition, when examining the activity composition of people analytics practitioners in the US federal government compared to those in the private sector, we find that the daily work activities of government practitioners also require strong technical skills. For example, activities that are overrepresented among people analytics practitioners in the government include data analysis and reporting for regulatory compliance, as well as conducting interdisciplinary research and data analysis.
COMMENTARY:
There is a pretty stark contrast in the flow of people analytics roles from public sector-to-private and from private sector-to-public. There appears to be a one-way flow, rather than a two way street. The distribution of degrees is also intriguing. It does support our research questions about degrees and pathways such that there are a larger number of doctoral-level degrees present in the public sector roles. The public sector funds a diverse range of applied research and analytic efforts which may be indicated by this distribution (see OECD’s Frascati Manual 2016, ch 2 which defines definitions and types of R&D). Private sector roles likely have more budgetary confines on true exploratory research roles whereas the government is a significant funder, sponsor, and developer of foundational through applied research and analytics (e.g. DARPA, NIH, etc.).
In reviewing the trends for acquiring and applying technical skills in public sector people analytics roles, it is apparent that those with an interest in using their technical skills should broaden their perspective beyond just that of the private sector. There is incredible variety and opportunity across multiple sectors and each brings with them different factors impacting role availability, experience, and budgetary considerations.
Conclusion
These trends are interesting and also require us to acknowledge there is much more to explore below the surface on these topics. Public sector roles tend to bring greater career stability, as demonstrated by this market analysis. In some cases, they may also bring heightened job purpose - such as serving as a Research Psychologist or analyst for the military or for NASA. There is also more opportunity for acquiring and applying technical skills and research in the public sector, which may be attractive to those with advanced degrees. Thus, it may be that a higher number of individuals move to people analytics roles in the public sector seeking heightened job security, established career pathways, use of their technical skills, and purpose-driven work.
The good news is people analytics practitioners have career choices, and perhaps even more choices than were indicated in Part ONE and Part TWO of this series. A trend we are eager to watch over the coming years is if more folks from the private sector start taking roles in the public sector. As the data has shown, the inverse correlation between roles in the public and private sectors indicate there are opportunities to do so at the current moment.
I hope you like this article. If so, I have a few more articles coming out soon. Stay tuned. If you are interested in learning more directly from me, please connect with me on LinkedIn.
Cole’s recent articles
What is happening to people analytics? A 15-year trend PART TWO
What is happening to people analytics? A 15-year trend PART ONE
Don’t Be a Copy-Cat: People Analytics as the Antidote to HR Strategy Copy-Cats
For access to all of Cole’s previous articles, go here.